Welcome to Volume Three of PARScards for 2026!
Next up, we have Joshua Báez of the Cardinals. Let’s dig in.
Background
Báez was a 2nd-round pick in 2021, signing for nearly $1 million over slot—money needed to pry him away from a Vanderbilt commitment. In high school, he was a two-way player, touching 98 mph and recording a 1.94 ERA with 44 K’s in just 18 IP.
How’d We Get Here?
Báez looked like a potential bust right out of the gate. After being selected 54th overall, he was sent to the complex, where he stunk. To start 2022, he went back to the complex, and stunk again, but the Cards’ brass promoted him to Single-A Palm Beach anyway. There, he slashed .286/.418/.540, good for a 173 wRC+, but it came attached to a THIRTY-EIGHT PERCENT strikeout rate.
It was between this and the Javy Báez/50 Cent gif
So naturally, he repeated the level in 2023 and regressed to a 104 wRC+, but brought the K’s allll the way down to 34%. In 2024, he was back in Palm Beach to open the year, but earned a promotion after 15 games (180 wRC+, 28% K-rate). In High-A Peoria, it was more of the same: back to striking out 37% of the time with a middling 100 wRC+.
Then along came 2025— the year of the Báez breakout. To start, he was back in Peoria for 38 games, where he lowered his K-rate to an at-the-time career best 21.4%, and a 152 wRC+. So of course, if we follow the pattern, he was due to struggle with strikeouts in Double-A Springfield, right? Wrong! There, after adjusting his stance to get more upright, he posted a new career-low K-rate of 20.6%. He made some very real changes, focusing on trusting his hands and aiming for contact over power. It’s funny how things work out like that, right? As soon as you stop trying to remember something, it pops in your head. Because what happened next, after this contact-focused approach? He finally started to tap into his double-plus, light-tower power, and cranked 16 home runs in 273 at-bats. His combined 2025 line was drool-worthy for fantasy players: .287/.384/.500, 23 doubles, 20 home runs, and 54 stolen bases. Beautiful.
As a result, St. Louis did something new with Báez in 2026: they promoted him to Triple-A to start the season. While he hasn’t struggled, he has taken a step back in both the speed (12 bags) and strikeout (31.5%) departments. After a FOUR-HOMER performance last night, Báez now leads all of Triple-A with 23 home runs, trailing only Manuel Pena (26 in Double-A) for the lead across all of MiLB.
His first of four was a majestic blast
The Good
Báez possesses the coveted power-speed combo that wins leagues. His exit velocities rank in the 99th percentile. He runs— a likely candidate for double-digit steals in the bigs. He’s no slouch in the field either, possessing a rocket for an arm. He’s played all over the outfield, but a welcome development for 2026 is that the majority of his time has been spent patrolling center.
Nice display of his athleticism
The Bad
The whiff issues aren’t going away. After a long history of elevated K-rates, Báez had just one season with a digestible K-rate before reverting back to his old ways. The lack of steals in Triple-A is also slightly concerning, especially considering his long track record of juicy stolen base totals:
The Verdict
Based on how he’s course-corrected in the past, I’m betting on talent and am fully bought in on Joshua Báez becoming a top-50 fantasy asset going forward. The K’s will likely always plague him, but if he settles in around 27-29%, he’ll still be a stud. I expect him to pop 30-35 home runs and swipe 10-15 bags annually, filling a George Springer-sized hole on someone’s fantasy team for years to come.
454 feet of awesome
Nathan Church has done a nice job so far, but he’s probably better suited as a valuable fourth outfielder. Victor Scott II was demoted to the minors on June 9th. Center field is wide open, and while Báez is better suited for right due to his excellent arm, it appears as though St. Louis might give him a shot to claim the position. Already on the 40-man, I expect him to be up sometime after the All-Star break. I also expect a quick Linsanity run, followed by some struggles to close out the year. 2027-28 is when he’ll go full beast mode and light the world on fire. Let’s go!
Thanks for reading!
- Rick ✌🏼