Volume 2

Welcome to Volume Two of PARScards for 2026!

Next up, we have Jackson Kent of the Nationals. Let’s dig in.

Background

Kent was drafted in the 4th round out of the University of Arizona in 2024. In High School, he was a stud in both baseball and football, but in college it was a slightly different picture. He redshirted in ‘22, and was relegated to a swingman role in ‘23 with middling results. By ‘24, he stepped into the rotation, eventually becoming Arizona’s Friday night starter, leading to an early call on day two of the MLB draft.

How’d We Get Here?

Since debuting in ‘25 in High-A, Kent has somehow gone under the radar while making it all the way up to Triple-A by May of ‘26. The reason? He’s not flashy— his fastball was upper 80s in 2023, then sat low 90s in 2024, and now lives 93-94mph in 2026. In a system teeming with upper echelon pitching prospects like Travis Sykora, Jarlyn Susana, Miguel Sime Jr, and Alex Clemmey, it’s easy to see why Kent has been overlooked (he’s still just 6% owned on Fantrax, while knocking on the door to the show).

The Good

Kent’s merely decent fastball on its own is nothing to get excited over. His best offering throughout his amateur and professional career has been his low 80s changeup. With significant arm-side fade, and around 10mph velocity separation from his fastball, Kent’s changeup generated an elite 51% whiff rate in 2025. That’s held steady in 2026 so far, with a 52.6% whiff rate to date. The FB/CH combo play beautifully off one another, keeping hitters off balance and guessing.

The 6′3″ left-hander also gets an impressive seven feet of extension, gaining a lower release height and creating difficult angles for hitters.

He also golfs, juggles, and plays Fortnite.

The Bad

The low velo FB will only take him so far. While the changeup-heavy approach works well in the minors, major league hitters will eventually (if not immediately) take advantage. Without another plus offering, Kent will be hit hard. Improving his secondaries (a mid 80s slider and a low-80s curve) is essential for his profile to work. Thankfully, his promotion to Triple-A affords us an opportunity to see some statcast data over his three starts.

Image courtesy of tjstats.ca

What’s interesting here is the uptick in usage of the slider, and the reduction of his changeup (down to just 17% usage). My best guess is that this is exactly what we hoped for— he’s working on his slider while reserving his changeup.

He got hit hard in his second start against the Syracuse Mets, but showed major improvement his last time out against Lehigh Valley. The slider earned a 41% CSW, with only one hard hit ball out of 29 offerings.

The problem is that his changeup velo has suddenly risen to the mid-80s, losing that precious velo gap with his fastball. The result? The fastball isn’t fooling anyone. In his last start, though the statline was good, the heater generated just 3 whiffs out of 17 swings. That’s not going to work.

Statcast lists a sinker, which I believe is just a mislabeled fastball. That leaves us with his least used pitch, a curveball. Kent rarely throws it, apparently struggling with location. When he does throw it, however, it’s a real weapon. He absolutely needs to develop this pitch. In his last start, he threw just 8 curveballs:

• Three whiffs
• Two called strikes
• Three balls

Zero contact was made on any of them.

The Verdict

I’m half-in. His PARS score places him in the lower end of the SP3/4 bucket. He’s trending like a backend starter with a mid-rotation ceiling if it all clicks. For it all to click, Kent needs to:

• Add 2-3 ticks to his fastball and sit 95-96mph (multiple outlets have predicted that this is likely)
• Gain better control of his curveball and increase its usage
• Keep his BB-rate where it is now (6.8%) and not return to 2025 levels (10.7%)

I’m typically not a fan of change-first arms. That philosophy kept me far away from Yu-Min Lin, who was a trending name in 2023, but is now on the bus of struggles in his second attempt at AAA. It also kept me off Logan Henderson, until he added some ticks to his FB. That increased velo made it a plus pitch, and improved the pairing with his elite changeup. That’s the key for Jackson Kent. If the slider becomes at least an above average offering, and he gains some velo on the FB, he’ll easily hit that SP3 ceiling. If that curveball ever develops... even better.

At 6% owned, the cost is likely nothing. On the other hand, we’re banking on multiple things to go right for Kent in order for him to be a viable starter. I’m hanging on to him in the hopes that he checks all three of those boxes. If he doesn’t, the profile likely doesn’t play and he’s an easy cut.

Thanks for reading!

- Rick ✌🏼