Hey crew, Rick and JT are back with the seventh installment of PARScards.
Brooks Baldwin · CHW · 23 · Double-A
PARS score: 89.1 · Rank: #13
Brooks Baldwin has had somewhat of a breakout 2024 campaign. According to the PARS formula, he's been a top 75 bat all year, ranking as high as 8th on May 31st, with a low of 67th on May 1st.
Outside of White Sox fans, he's gone somewhat unnoticed. Fangraphs didn't rank him in the team's top 31 prospects. Baseball America ranked him 23rd on the team for 2024, calling him a likely bat-first utilityman (with a 55 hit). On Fantrax, he's still just 2% owned.
Furthermore, Fantrax lists him as a first baseman, where he's played just 11 innings since joining the White Sox in 2022. At UNC Wilmington, he played all over: 1B (59 games), 2B (60), CF (10), RF (45), SS (17). With the ChiSox, he's moved around as well, and we'll see later that this is a large part of Baldwin's profile. He was used nearly exclusively as a shortstop this season until Jacob Gonzalez was promoted on May 21st. Since then, he's split his time between SS/2B/3B, with Gonzalez alternating between the six and the keystone.
Clearly the switch-hitting Baldwin is the second coming of Ben Zobrist.
On April 20th, I wasn't high, but I did write this about Baldwin:
Let's see how he's doing now, a month and a half later:
.350/.425/.460, 13 doubles, 3 home runs, 14/16 SB
The line has come down a bit, but he's still ranking high on PARS. I think it's time to dig in. Let's see why Baldwin has eluded the public eye, as well an appearance on the 0s and 1s.
Why is Baldwin ranking so high?
Rick:
The line is solid, though Baldwin leaves a bit to be desired in the power department. He's rocking a 168 wRC+ in Double-A, in a pitching-friendly environment. His BABIP of .406 suggests some regression is coming. In my backtesting, however, I found that only BABIPs north of .430 truly correlated with increased bust potential.
His batted ball data looks good:
- 38% ground balls
- 25% line drives
- 16% infield flies
He sprays the ball all over, with an almost even distribution (37% pull, 32% center, 31% oppo).
As a switch hitter, he's showing great splits in 2024 (after a subpar 2023 as a RHH):
JT:
Yeah his batted ball splits do look good. But where's the power? Dude is 6'2". The reason he isn't on the 0s and 1s is because I already have a guy who does these things. His name is Javier Vaz. The difference between the two is the contact. Brooks hasn't struck out much, but he runs a sub 80% Z contact at 76.5%, while Vaz's is still elite even in a down season (92%). He also has been flirting with a 30% O swing (27.1% at the moment), while Vaz is solid at 20.8%. Both guys run, but are never going to lead the league in steals. If the power doesn't show up, the contact has to— and I'm just not sold that it's better than Vaz's. He runs a 24.8% whiff rate vs Vaz's 11.3%. The splits do look alright so you'd think the power would show up— there was a little pop last season. Double-A is a different animal. That high of wRC+ could be trying to tell us something though.
Some under the hood numbers:
Brooks since May 1st:
Vaz since May 1st:
Where does he fit defensively?
Rick:
Between 1st round picks Colson Montgomery (2021) and Gonzalez (2023), it's probably safe to bet against Baldwin as the long-term answer at short for the Sox. Selected in the 12th round in 2022, Baldwin likely ends up playing all over the the dirt. But boy, he can pick it.
Scooping a liner deflected off of Drew Thorpe:
A great deep snag at short:
Really quick instincts at third:
Another snare at the six:
Is he an MLB regular or a bench piece?
Rick:
I think this is a guy who will figure some things out as he develops. He's a gamer with good instincts, discipline, and hands. And he bunts...
... against the shift.
He's a switch hitter with defensive flexibility. Baldwin is basically a guy you keep on your squad to fill in everywhere, on any given day. Potentially not just IRL but in fantasy land as well. Could he have a Joey Ortiz-type of ceiling with a Miguel Rojas floor?
Maybe I'm biased from the high PARS score, but he looks like a legit major leaguer.
JT:
Well with all those names in front of him playing the same position, it's hard to say 'regular'. If the pop doesn't show up, a utility position looks like it's in the cards. He has just 4 errors on the season and the glove looks solid. Is his glove elite enough with a solid bat to push one of the studs to another position? Colson did have a 3 error game this season and has 8 overall. We have seen a couple guys move off of SS to the outfield. Fernando Tatis Jr and Jackson Merrill are two that pop to mind. Colson has only played SS in AAA, so it doesn't seem like something the White Sox are looking at.
JT's Verdict
His glove is that of an MLB regular. His bat so far does not look elite, but the wRC+ could be a sign of more ahead. The wOBA has been slowly trending down from the hot start. I don't know if there is enough to be fantasy relevant, but it could be. If that ISO got up into the .175 range I'd hop on board. It's what got Vaz on the 0s and 1s in the first place, it just hasn't shown up in AA. If Brooks gets it up in that range I'll get on board. He is still just 2% owned, so the price is right to take a shot.