JT and I are back to tackle the world's biggest issues, as always. This week, we dive into the Yankees' prospect-catchers-who-may-or-may-not-be-catchers situation.
How about a PARScards 3-pack for Volume 5? I debated designing a "future stars" style card, but decided they each deserved their own.
Before we get started, let's do a quick profile comparison of the three backstops that we'll be looking into today:
As Agustín Ramírez finally, and deservedly, starts to catch the eye of the masses (garnering some top 100 prospect hype along the way), the PARS fam already knew. Ramírez's first appearance here on the PARS Patreon was on the 7/22/23 MiLB formula update:
Just four days later, JT went more in-depth with Volume 7 of the must-read '0s and 1s' column, saying "the big market specs are always a nice currency to buy low in due to the volume spikes with every piece of news"
When the mainstream marvels at their shiny new spec, it's hard to sit back and resist taking a victory lap, as we see OUR GUY all over the feed.
BUT- it's a GOOD thing to see these accounts giving our guys love. It drives up their value, and now all of a sudden you have a trade chip that didn't cost you anything if you acted early and held. It was easy to hold Ramírez, as he never really struggled.
We're not here to victory lap Double-A home runs, however.
We're here to hit on as many undervalued prospects as possible, and capitalize.
I've seen a question repeated multiple times this week, asking who is the more likely backstop of the future for the Yankees:
Agustín Ramírez or Ben Rice?
That was the bat signal for JT and I. And we're here to tell you that the question should also include one more name: Jesus Rodriguez.
Ramírez and Rodriguez both turned up on last week's piece, "The Perfect PARSlist Prospect", along with only two other players for 2024. You may have heard of them: Lazaro Montes and Kyle Manzardo. Even though he's a level behind in A+, Rodriguez is worth adding to the discussion.
JT and I are going to attempt to provide an answer to the 3R Riddle: Ramírez, Rice, or Rodriguez?
Part One: Offense
Here's King Agustín showing off his big boy power with a rocket to dead center:
Absolutely LOVE this swing by Ramírez, and his boss-mode backswing:
Here's a Ben Rice blast to dead center. I love the shortstop pointing at it, ala Edwin Díaz. That baby was long gone.
Watch Jesus Rodriguez sit back on this one and loft it:
And here he is poking one the other way for an oppo taco:
The Verdict
Rick: The best hitter here is Ramírez, and it shows in the PARS formula. He's displaying huge power to all fields, rocking an elite walk-rate, striking out less than 20% of the time, and even showing off the wheels, going 8/8 on the bases.
JT: I look for a few different production styles. Pure power, all around speed and pop, and sustainability for production via some batted ball data. It's always a small group of 2-6 names. At the moment Agustín Ramírez is on every one. I don't remember one guy showing up on every list last season, but Agustín is so far in 2024.
Part Two: Defense
Here's an accurate throw from Ramírez to catch the runner by a fair amount:
Next, top prospect Marcelo Mayer easily swipes second on a perfect pitch to run on, but Ramírez compounds it with a throw that's juuust a bit outside.
Here we have speedster Chandler Simpson (94 swipes in 2023) stealing second on Rodriguez....
Before getting nabbed later in the same game (on a pitch up and in, mind you). This was the first game of the season, April 5th.
A month later, and Rodriguez nabs Elio Prado (13 SB last year) on a very similar poor pitch… but the throw was on the money.
This clip from the Venezuelan Winter League is grainier than dog-food from the dollar store, but you can see Rodriguez lay out to make a stellar diving catch while playing CF:
Next up is Rice, receiving an awful, 50 Cent-like pitch from Brock Selvidge. Rice one-hops it to second as if he were a golfer aiming for the green between the mound at the bag.
Here, Rice catches the runner, his only CS in 22 attempts this year, though it looks awkward overall.
The Verdict
Rick: Boy oh boy, Rice is probably not a catcher. He seems to be able to hold his own with the stick, but looks like a square peg in a round hole out there. Ramírez's caught stealing percentage this year is lower than normal, but he looks comfortable. Much more than Rice. Rodriguez, on the other hand, fully looks the part. He passes the eye test, has the best career CS%, and has the highest likelihood to call a game in the Bronx (while wearing pinstripes) for my money.
JT: I agree with Rick here. Rice will have to be a bat first 1B/DH type. Idk if Agustín sticks either. He had respectable CS %'s in the lower levels, but since moving up to AA it's fallen off hard (9.4%). Jesus does look like a better bet, but he still hasn't got to AA (where Ramírez first ran into trouble). Agustín caught 23.6% of would-be base stealers between A/A+. Jesus has caught 27.5% so far in A/A+. I will wait to make a verdict on Jesus until he gets to AA. Without question he is the most athletic of the three.
Part Three: Trade, Keep, Cut
Rick: I'd trade Ramírez, keep Rodriguez, and cut Rice. Ramírez has the helium right now for you to capitalize on, though it's always hard parting with the hot hand. If you're contending, he could potentially land you a solid MLB veteran. Rodriguez's positional versatility and relatively non-existent trade value make him someone I'd want to hang on to. Rice may end up as an up-and-down bat when he does get a shot, but might be a frustrating hold depending on your league settings.
JT: I'd cut Rice. He hasn't been bad in AA- the opposite really, but right now Agustín is THAT guy, at just 22 and at the same level. Jesus is 22 as well, but Agustín has half a year on him. I'd keep Agustín. Jesus is looking pretty nice in A+ but it still isn't as good as Agustín was when he was there.
Agustin in A+ at 21 2023:
Jesus in A+ at 21/22 2023/2024:
The bottom is nice, the top is how you get promoted after 27 games.
Agustin in AA in 2024:
So far this season, Ramírez also has the most SB out of all players with double digit HR totals, with 8. The next closest has 5. Out of the same group, he has the 2nd least amount of strikeouts (25), trailing only Heston Kjerstad (22). Kjerstad has played 9 less games in MiLB, though, and actually has the higher K%.
If I'm trading Agustín you better not come with some middle-of-the-mall stuff. You better bring me something nice.
As for Jesus, I guess I'd have to trade him in this scenario. I'd target a Yankee fan since he hasn't got his due helium yet. I think the bat Agustín is running around with is a bat bigger than Jesus and it might be good enough to force itself into regular at bats.
I like Agustín and Jesus, but have to side with Agustín as my one to ride with.
Part Four: Predicting an MLB Role
Agustín Ramírez
Rick: It's so easy to fall into the "he's the next big thing" hype with prospects, who fail to live up to expectations time and time again. That said, I firmly believe that Ramírez is a special bat. I can see him getting some run behind the dish before ultimately shifting to the cold corner as a long term home. I think he becomes a middle-of-the-order bat for a team not named the Yankees.
JT: Ramírez can force his bat into a lineup. Could he catch a day or two a week? Maybe, but he could also move off the position like MJ Melendez did. He has played just 8 total games at 1B in AA between last year and this year. If I had to guess it would be a C/DH with more DH than C. I think the Yankees already have a guy who can play 1B in AAA in T.J. Rumfield.
Jesus Rodriguez
Rick: I planted my flag on Rodriguez this year. His ceiling is that of a starting catcher who hits for average, chipping in double digit HR's and a handful of steals. His floor is a super-utility guy with potential catcher eligibility, who gets 3-4 starts per week and offers deep daily league value. He's likely still finding his defensive home, but there is a lot to like here. At 1% owned, the cost to find out is basically null.
JT: An athletic catcher that can fill other holes, maybe a corner OF spot? Is this some Varsho 2.0 stuff? I like what he is doing but he hasn't shown that pop like Agustín so maybe he ends up in a utility-style role. Time will tell- he still has a big jump to AA ahead. If he hits there like he has at A+ that conversation will change drastically.
Ben Rice
Rick: I think he ends up failing to find a home, both on the field and on a 40-man. I may have overvalued his profile after his 2023, chalking up the 'age-to-level' concern to the Yankees being conservative with promotions, as well as being blocked by Wells in AAA.
JT: I've never been on the Rice train. Just wasn't a profile I usually gravitate towards. He will get a shot at some point, but the bat will have to absolutely cook to stick around. Some guys just need a shot and that's all it takes. We have seen a few come up and down (Luken Baker, Juan Yepez, Matt Wallner, Matt Mervis), and then a guy like Patrick Wisdom comes up and sticks around. You just never know what will happen, but one thing is for certain: that bat will have to be smoking hot out of the gate.
So JT and I agree that Agustín Ramírez is the dude, with Jesus Rodriguez finishing second, and Ben Rice barely crossing the finish line to take home the bronze.
If we could get a glimpse into the 2027 season, where do you see Ramírez, Rice, and Rodriguez? In Pinstripes? Behind the plate? Both? Neither?
Thanks for reading, fam!
-Rick & JT ✌🏼