Hey PARS fam, Rick and JT are back with the fourth installment of PARScards. Let’s do a quick recap:
Volume 1: Zyhir Hope
Volume 2: Matt Wilkinson
Volume 3: Gavin Conticello
For Volumes 1 & 2, I collected some old tweets and vids and built a timeline to show prospect development over time. For Volume 3, JT and I coincidentally both landed on Gavin Conticello during our research, so the writeup became a collab piece (and led to the format for this and future volumes).
When the PARScards series started, I had an idea for what it was going to look like. Now, by Volume 4, it’s morphed into something completely different, and I love it. Working with JT is fun. It’s not work. He doesn’t care if someone is a top draft pick with pedigree. If dude is whiffing in 45% of at-bats, smashing everything he connects with into the ground, what good is pedigree? Who cares about scouting if a player can’t keep up with the high heat, handle offspeed pitches, or pick it at the hot corner?
So now, with each volume, JT and I will pick a player that cracks the PARSlist Top 50 and either raises an eyebrow, or that we’re somewhat unfamiliar with. We’ll research, discuss, and decide whether or not the score is legit, or if it’s just a hot start/stretch. We’re going in blind, with the intention of researching the data, the history, the video, the scouting, and the vibe, to see if we can make heads or tails on the unknown, divisive, or trendy player.
The goal isn’t to prove my point, or JT’s point. It’s to learn. So you won’t be seeing Junior Caminero here, or Paul Skenes. We’re going to hopefully provide some clarity on some lesser known names that pop with the formula, or some known names that we might suspect are playing over their head.
One name that has scored very highly early on over the last two seasons is Victor Mesa Jr.
Here are his monthly splits from 2023: started out hot, sputtered for four months, then turned it on in September:
The exact opposite happened in 2022:
In 2021, he got better as the year went on. It’s natural to try and chalk it up to the player’s profile. But could it be that he was just 19, 20, and 21 during these seasons? I honestly don’t know what to make of him, which is why we’re doing this exercise.
One thing that led us here, was that on April 20th, I picked him as a false positive, calling his hot start a fluk. But let’s dig in a little more and put some real info behind that claim:
We’re going to go back and forth until a determination is hopefully made
Rick / PARS
I’ll start with one of my personal favorite ways to judge a player: the hit tool
Fangraphs slapped him with a 30 in their latest update. Back on their 2019 report, they listed him as a FV 40+ player with a 25/55 hit tool grade. At the time, he was stated to have a plus feel to hit, being contact-oriented. In 2020, the ever-so-reliable MLB Pipeline tabbed him with a 55, with this blurb:
Sounds to me like something changed between 2019/20 and when his hit tool was slapped with a 30/30 last May. Sure enough, he started chasing and missing on the regular. But now it gets interesting: the still just 22-year old Mesa Jr actually reduced his K-rate to 16.5% this year, spanning nearly 100 PA’s. That’s his best mark since his 14% mark in 2019. I personally think the hit tool is a 40/45, with potential to be average.
JT / Dukes
His splits look very stable year over year and level over level. Here is a breakdown of his batted ball splits:
He has 5 HRs and by far his highest ISO to date at .227. He is striking out a lot less this year but he is still chasing with an O-Swing right around 40%. His 31% hard hit rate with a 101mph 90th EV doesn’t scream power hitter. I started to look if anything had changed in his swing and I can’t see much, if any difference, from 2021 to now.
The bat could be lower but it’s also different camera angles. He did say in 2021 he needed to lift more….
Here is 2024:
Some pop has been there but I’m not sure it’s a part of his game.
Rick / PARS
So far, this appears to be a young player who’s learning and developing. He had the eye and approach, but clearly wanted to add some pop to his game. He launched a career best 18 homers last year, surpassing his previous high of 5. This year, he’s upped the ante further with a slugging percentage over 100 points higher. Fluke? Maybe. But at the same time, he’s improved his K-rate, while maintaining a consistent spray chart. After his older brother was released in June 2023, he hit 12 of his 18 total home runs between July and September. Maybe there is some human element to the power surge, which has continued this year as well.
JT / Dukes
22 and improving are 100% things that could be going on. He could have added that strength he talked about as well. The EVs, I don’t know what they were previously but they just don’t scream big power to me. So if he isn’t going to hit for big power what else can be there for fantasy? Steals. He stole 16 last season for a wSB of 0.8. FG graded him for 60 speed on their latest grades. So far he has attempted just one steal and was caught. If those go away or come down to single digits a year that’s a big hit in fantasy. 10/12 bombs and 6/8 SB aren’t numbers that play in fantasy, especially for a smaller league with less than 30 teams. I’m all in on a young guy improving, not all in on the ceiling just yet so far.
Rick / PARS
So we have identified potential concerns with the hit tool, the power, and now the speed. Sometimes the lack of steals is because players aren’t getting the greenlight, but manager Daren Bowen historically loves his guys to run, dating back to his days with the Tacoma Rainiers in 2019. That team was on a record pace for stolen bases after 100 games or so. So I don’t believe this is the issue either.
Before I get to a couple of points that should instill at least some confidence in VMJ, there’s still another wart on his profile:
He’s a lefty that can’t hit righties.
2022: .221/.312/.306 vs RHP, .308/.357/.458 vs LHP
2023: .227/.293/.392 vs RHP, .281/.346/.460 vs LHP
2024: .231/.277/.436 vs RHP, .455/.536/.682 vs LHP
So he has reverse splits, not the end of the world right? Well, no. That puts him on the small-side of the platoon. Mesa Jr has a somewhat complicated profile, and now I understand why mostly only Fish Faithful are sold on him.
Let’s talk about some of his skills that will translate to success in MLB:
He’s an excellent defender in Centerfield, flashing a plus glove.
He also leads off nearly every day for the Jumbo Shrimp. These are positive signs that he should be able to at least hold down a roster spot in the bigs. Whether or not it’s as an everyday guy, a small-side platoon player, or a 4th outfielder, is the question we came to answer.
Should I add Victor Mesa Jr to my fantasy team, if he’s essentially free to be had on waivers?
JT / Dukes: If it’s a really deep league, it’s worth the shot. 22 years old in AAA for an org that looks to have started the fire sale is not the worst place to look for filling out the bottom of your roster. If in a mid-to-smaller sized league it’s still a wait and see approach for me.
Rick / PARS: he scored high on PARS last April, but then ran out of gas and was waiver wire fodder. I like to bet on the hit tool, defense, and speed… and let the power come later. But he might only truly have 1 of those 3 things. I’m only grabbing him in a deep league where any at-bats are valuable, as he may get a ton of them soon. He’s already on the 40-man, Arraez is gone, Bell may be soon too, which leaves Jazz, BDLC, and Jesús Sánchez for LF/CF/RF/DH. That said, I’m not sold on his current PARS score of 85.2, and the 16th overall bat (this is the long career, some all-star games bracket).
Verdict
Rick / PARS: 6.5/10 — he’ll settle into a platoon role in time
JT / Dukes: 5.5/10 — he’s most likely a bench player