Hey guys, we’re back with the third installment of PARScards!
Volume 1 focused on hype-machine Zyhir Hope (Zohir Hype?), while Volume 2 featured the unheralded-at-the-time Matt Wilkinson. The timing was pretty great, as Matt’s next start was pretty much out of this world. I was stoked to see Tugboat get so much attention, and more info starting pouring in on him a day later. His ownership jumped overnight, and if only I could hit on these at 100% success rate you wouldn’t need to subscribe to anyone else besides Upside Prospect (which is mandatory reading imo, with the 0s and 1s, TJ’s Pitcher Cards, and PitcherDigs to find college and prep gems ahead of the curve).
But I digress.
This next one is going to be a bit different. Instead of searching the Twitter feed for older posts and videos, JT breaks Conticello down, 0s and 1s style. As fate would have it, we were both unknowingly and simultaneously researching Gavin, the buzzy Dback (pun intended, assuming you saw the delay last night in the desert).
JT was not sold on G-Con, and I was planning on doing my digging after I scooped him up off the wire based on scorched-earth stats alone. We can always just ditch later. If you look closely, you can see JT is likely right, as the original version of this card from last week had Conticello 28th overall, with a PARS score of 80.1. Now, still solid with a 71.9, 92nd overall.
Here’s the skinny from JT, no sugar (or honey) coating, as we’ve come to expect from ol’ Dukes:
Gavin Conticello (2% Owned – Age 20 – 400+ Specs)
Conticello was taken out of HS in 2021 and up until his move to A+ he hadn’t put up numbers that make you want to go out and grab him. He is a tall, athletic kid (6’3 195) that has been playing RF/1B in 2024. Let’s just look at the numbers here real quick…
Here’s what he did in Single-A:
That’s not something you’d look to go out and add to your roster. He got moved up to A+ regardless late last season. It’s always a plus when the org moves you along without production really forcing their hand, while not totally aging out of the level either.
Here is A+ since last season until now:
And here is his nuclear hot start to this season alone:
He has a hit in every game so far but 3. He has been on base in each game. He is raking, just flat out raking with just 3 PAs vs younger pitchers. He is on here because of his production and some helium coming in. Rick is talking about him, Jo is talking about him, and Lucas/Upside is talking about him. He is owned in all of my leagues but still just 2% so if he is on the wire in yours you should grab him and see if he can keep it up for an entire season – Or until you find a buyer.
The production is undeniable but there is one thing I want to point out that I’m not a fan of. It’s his GB% in 2023 (59.3%) and 2024 (51.8%) while in A+.
If you’ve followed me for a while, you know I hate that.
Conticello posts high GB rates throughout his career, save for Single-A where he wasn’t very good either. He has stolen some bases in his career as well, but has never had a positive wSB at any stop. Like I said, the production is undeniable. If he is available you might as well hop on and see. If that GB% is what it is, then the odds of this sustaining are very very slim. He has moved to RF this season after playing the corner infield spots in the seasons prior. He averaged around 1 error every 4 games for his career before they were forced to move him into RF this season.
Helium is Helium, take it anyway you can get it
Very unbiased and well-researched by Dukes. I wasn’t sold on Conticello either, and this one would have been my attempt to figure it out. But I trust JT and that’s enough for me.
Below are some of the tweets, some from a few PARS friends, that I was planning on using before JT sent over the writeup.
1) Jo, @Jo_dynasty3
2 & 3) Nate Handy @pitchingspecs (2nd vid linked here)
4) The Welsh from 6/22:
5) Josh Norris @jnorris427 (homer off Shohei!)
6) Kyler Peterson, from 2020
7) Jake Tillinghast from 2020 as well
8) Ian Smith @IanSmittyGA
This last one is about Roman Anthony, but it gave me confidence in Conticello’s chances.
So, who wins the head-to-head, if I was the counterpoint to JT’s refusal to flag-plant on an earthworm killer? If I had to pick, JT. I agree with a lot of it. Scouts see things, for sure, but numbers don’t really lie. For Conticello, the stat line has been insane, but the GB% has to improve (as well as the K-rate).
As for scouting vs stats, here’s an analogy that I think applies:
Your company has an open position. You read resumes, send emails, have phone screens, then in-person interviews. Management agrees, we found our guy! Let’s extend the offer.
Then they show up to work and totally shit the bed. They can’t keep up. They’re disorganized. They miss things. It’s just not a fit. It happens often: the perceived skills don’t translate in practice. We can train and teach all we want, but in the end, it might just be a misperception of translatable talents.
I’m not at all saying Conticello is going to be fired before his 90-day probationary period is up. But he may get fired from my roster. His cost was null for me, so I have no problem moving on if he struggles, and refuses to leave the groundhogs alone. But— he may continue to surge and develop his game.
Outside of shallow leagues with limited minors, I highly recommend keeping a few spots reserved exclusively for churning the hot hand. When they sputter, to the gutter. But, when one of these guys refuses to cool off, then churn no more, and offer them a long-term position with your company and an employee of the month parking spot. There will always be other employees who start to phone it in. And then it’s time to interview the next candidate.
Thanks for reading!
-Rick ✌🏼 and JT 💪🏼